Connect with us

Business

Will Aviragen Therapeutics, Inc. (AVIR) Fizzle Or Continue To Sizzle

Published

on

Our task today will be to comprehensively evaluate recent data for Aviragen Therapeutics, Inc. (AVIR) to determine whether or not we have something approaching a “value” in the market.

In the most basic sense, the “value investing” methodology really has its roots in the college textbook “Security Analysis”, which was published six decades ago by Graham and Dodd. But today, the term “value investing” is generally applied to any approach that focuses first and foremost on the concept of valuation, seeking out viable companies that are “cheap” based on various measures.

That said, we all know that the forward data on a stock like this requires faith in those making projections: the analysts. Currently, the forward projections are driven by a group of 1 analysts. And, naturally, no one knows if those 1 folks are way off base for some reason. It’s happened before. That’s why some investing legends only trust the trailing earnings data.

In this case, that valuation ration is sitting right at -1.05.

However, to get a real sense of how this measures up, we will need to dig deeper. Benjamin Graham, the legendary value investor and one of the authors of the seminal text mentioned above, commonly relied on a simple formula for more aggressive investments: Current assets should be at least 1½ times current liabilities, debt should not be more than 110% of net current assets, there should be some level of dividend payments, and the Price-to-book-value ratio should be less than 120% of net tangible assets.

With that in mind, let’s see how Aviragen Therapeutics, Inc stacks up to this challenge.

First off, the company’s current ratio (the ration of current assets to current liabilities) is sitting at 6.76. Remember, according to Graham, that should be at least 1.5. Next, we can see debt-to-equity at 1.60. How about price-to-book ratio? Right now, it clocks in at 1.33.

That should speak to what Graham might say if he came across this stock at its current price. But there are certainly other factors involved in the concept of value in today’s market that should be appreciated.

For example, Aviragen Therapeutics, Inc. (AVIR) has managed to generate a return on its assets of -30.36%. That has been achieved through operating margins of -307.86%. Naturally, in the most basic sense, the concept of value is rooted in an ability to generate returns on invested capital. It is fundamentally about gaining access to the machine that has demonstrated its capability to generate those returns, and to do so for a price that is beneath what it is truly worth.

Perhaps the final measure that speaks to this idea is what investors currently have to pay for the company’s sales. In this case, the company’s price-to-sales ratio currently clocks in at 3.60.

 

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Business

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE:BABA) rally could be short lived

Published

on

It’s time to take an in-depth technical look at Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR (NYSE: BABA) . Our goal here today is to examine how the stock is behaving so we can use that examination as a lens through which to evaluate the stock as a possible investment opportunity.

Technical analysis is predicated on the idea that all important information is already interpolated by buyers and sellers of a security, so the only thing left to really interpret and predict the action is that behavior itself. For market timers, one of the most important tools we have at hand is the key indicators that show whether the stock is stretched in one direction or the other too much, too far, or too fast. In other words, is the stock overbought, oversold, or somewhere in the middle?

For that, we first turn to the RSI measure. The 14-day RSI is the standard flag-bearer for this type of analysis. Right now, for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR, the measure stands at 53.22%. That shows where the stock is as far as the degree to which it is becoming overbought or oversold relative to its price history.

If we look at other overbought/oversold oscillators, we can get even more perspective. The stochastic measure is a good example. Right now, the stock over the past month of action shows a score of 51.91% on the 20-day fast stochastic.

In an even broader sense, NYSE: BABA has recently been showing trading action that suggests an overall bullish posture on the chart according to trend-related measures such as a major moving average. In this case, we are looking at the relative positions of the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. The implication, of course, is that money is generally treating this stock in a positive manner in terms of capital flows.

Next, we want to look at participation levels. Our conviction on a stock in terms of its technicals is almost entirely subject in the end to the type of volume of trade we see going on in the stock. Patterns of action gain meaning strictly through volume levels. In other words, you need plenty of people playing the game for the score to matter. At this point, relative volume measures have been strong, indicating interest among traders, investors, and money managers for the stock over the past month. As it stands at present, the stock might find important action around key levels on the chart, which is something else we like to take a close look at.

One of the best ways to define key levels is through derivations built off of the Fibonacci series. This is widely used by professional firms in the market. The Fibonacci series is a set of numbers derived from adding the prior number to the next one: 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34, etc. You will note that each number is the sum of the prior two numbers. The series has been found to exemplify the mathematics underlying many growth systems. The ratio of one number to the next in the series approaches 61.8% (or 38.2%, depending on which direction you move) as a limit. In markets, the key levels are often played at retracements defined by this ratio and its associated connections. In this case, the critical 38.2% level drawn off the 52-week high of $206.20 sits at $166.13. NYSE: BABA also has additional resistance above at the stocks 200-day simple moving average, which sits at $ 166.12.

So far, we have looked at oscillators, moving average trends, and participation levels. However, sometimes, there is information carried in simply the degree of movement in a stock. For example, over the past trading month, NYSE: BABA has made a move of -6.78. By comparison, over the trailing 100 days, the stock is outperforming the S&P 500 by 2.86, and its gotten there by action that has been more volatile on a day-to-day basis than most other stocks on the exchange.

Obviously, that tells us a ton about this name. To even drill down deeper into the movement, we can see that the stocks recent action has come on a historical volatility score of 41.48%. That number is derived from the standard deviation of returns of some hypothetical trader buying the stock at a given average price during the specified period. If we want to look at range of action in a simplistic sense, the best way is to use the average true range over the most common reference time period, so we are staying on the same page with the market. In this case, the 20-day ATR as a percentage of its 20-day moving average comes in at 3.23%.

We plan to update our take on this stock as its pattern of behavior progresses from here.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

Continue Reading

Business

eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) is up for the next big collaboration ?

Published

on

Well-rounded due diligence on a stock should take into account a basic analysis of core company trends such as top-line and bottom-line performance, margins, analyst views, cash flows, and overall balance sheet health. But that’s not all. One must also take a dispassionate, professional survey of a stocks technical characteristics.

For that, we must turn to the chart. Today?s object of technical analysis is eBay Inc. (EBAY).

We will start our analysis by examining overall direction of trend. In the most basic sense, we can see that EBAY has been working in a bullish posture on a larger timeframe, as indicated by the relative positioning of the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. In other words, if the 50-day moving average is trading above the 200-day, it is traditionally seen as a bullish chart trend. Conversely, if the 50-day moving average is trading below the 200-day, it is traditionally labeled a bearish trend or bearing. As noted, for EBAY, that adds up to a bullish designation the main point being that we have money flows leaning in a generally positive direction for the stock.

Next, we will turn to our analysis of the primary oscillating indicators to assess the degree to which the stock is stretched in its movement at present. The key tools for this analysis are the 14-day Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and the 20-day fast stochastic. In each case, the point is to measure overbought or oversold behavior ie, whether the stock has gone too far too fast in one direction or the other. If we see a score above 75 (overbought) or below 25 (oversold), history suggests one is wise to expect some reversion to the mean. For EBAY, we can see that our 14-day RSI shows a score of 57.63%, while the 20-day fast stochastic reports a score of 47.61%.

Next, we will turn to key levels of interest on the chart, with an emphasis on Fibonacci retrace points, range extremes, and major moving averages. In this case, the critical 38.2% level drawn off the 52-week high of $46.99 sits at $41.22. EBAY also has additional resistance above at the stocks 200-day simple moving average, which sits at $ 37.06.

We also want to look at relative performance and overall volatility scoring to understand value and risk in play. EBAY has moved $+3.01 over the past month or so. Over the trailing 100 days, the stock is outperforming the S&P 500 by 5.51%. This movement has come on a more volatile bearing from one day to the next relative to the broader market, according to the stocks 36-month beta.

Similarly, we can see that the stocks recent action has come on a historical volatility score of 53.70%. To get that score, one has to take the standard deviation of returns for a random trading input assuming buying the stock at a given average price during the specified period. On a more basic level, one might look at the 20-day ATR as a percentage of its 20-day moving average. That measure gives us a volatility score of 2.6%.

Finally, we?ve spent some time looking at price as a factor in many forms and from many angles. But what about volume? Notably, many chartists see volume as more indicative for conviction in bearing or pattern than price measures, averages, or oscillators. Volume records the true degree of participation involved in a stock. If price pattern is like a word written on a word processor, volume is like the font size and punctuation. In this case, we want to examine relative volume measures to get a feel for interest in the stock of late. Right now, this stock has been showing strong relative volume, which indicates interest among those making a market for shares of the stock, and that should be seen as a key factor in drawing conclusions about your level of interest as well.

That wraps up todays analysis, but we will be sure to check back on this stock again soon.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

Continue Reading

Business

JD.com Inc. ADR (NASDAQ:JD) buy out on the horizon ?

Published

on

Well-rounded due diligence on a stock should take into account a basic analysis of core company trends such as top-line and bottom-line performance, margins, analyst views, cash flows, and overall balance sheet health. But that’s not all. One must also take a dispassionate, professional survey of a stocks technical characteristics.

For that, we must turn to the chart. Today?s object of technical analysis is JD.com Inc. ADR (JD).

We will start our analysis by examining overall direction of trend. In the most basic sense, we can see that JD has been working in a bullish posture on a larger timeframe, as indicated by the relative positioning of the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. In other words, if the 50-day moving average is trading above the 200-day, it is traditionally seen as a bullish chart trend. Conversely, if the 50-day moving average is trading below the 200-day, it is traditionally labeled a bearish trend or bearing. As noted, for JD, that adds up to a bullish designation the main point being that we have money flows leaning in a generally positive direction for the stock.

Next, we will turn to our analysis of the primary oscillating indicators to assess the degree to which the stock is stretched in its movement at present. The key tools for this analysis are the 14-day Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and the 20-day fast stochastic. In each case, the point is to measure overbought or oversold behavior ie, whether the stock has gone too far too fast in one direction or the other. If we see a score above 75 (overbought) or below 25 (oversold), history suggests one is wise to expect some reversion to the mean. For JD, we can see that our 14-day RSI shows a score of 59.47%, while the 20-day fast stochastic reports a score of 65.33%.

Next, we will turn to key levels of interest on the chart, with an emphasis on Fibonacci retrace points, range extremes, and major moving averages. In this case, the critical 38.2% level drawn off the 52-week high of $50.68 sits at $42.73. JD also has additional resistance above at the stocks 200-day simple moving average, which sits at $ 41.83.

We also want to look at relative performance and overall volatility scoring to understand value and risk in play. JD has moved $+1.07 over the past month or so. Over the trailing 100 days, the stock is outperforming the S&P 500 by 15.69%. This movement has come on a more volatile bearing from one day to the next relative to the broader market, according to the stocks 36-month beta.

Similarly, we can see that the stocks recent action has come on a historical volatility score of 42.93%. To get that score, one has to take the standard deviation of returns for a random trading input assuming buying the stock at a given average price during the specified period. On a more basic level, one might look at the 20-day ATR as a percentage of its 20-day moving average. That measure gives us a volatility score of 3.57%.

Finally, we?ve spent some time looking at price as a factor in many forms and from many angles. But what about volume? Notably, many chartists see volume as more indicative for conviction in bearing or pattern than price measures, averages, or oscillators. Volume records the true degree of participation involved in a stock. If price pattern is like a word written on a word processor, volume is like the font size and punctuation. In this case, we want to examine relative volume measures to get a feel for interest in the stock of late. Right now, this stock has been showing weak relative volume, which indicates lack of interest among those making a market for shares of the stock, and that should be seen as a key factor in drawing conclusions about your level of interest as well.

That wraps up todays analysis, but we will be sure to check back on this stock again soon.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

Continue Reading

Trending

Access To This Content is FREE for a 
LIMITED TIME

47,260 Crypto-Currency enthusiast already joined 

This information never be shared to 3rd part companies

THANK YOU FOR SENDING!