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Vodafone Group PLC ADR (NASDAQ: VOD) in a temporary turn?

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In the spirit of strong objective analysis, we are going to take a close look at Vodafone Group PLC ADR (NASDAQ: VOD) from a technical chartist point of view today.

In short, technical analysis assumes that all publicly available facts about a stock are already discounted by knowledgeable buyers and sellers. And it is from there that the real work begins: examining the stocks behavior on the chart.

As such, we will begin with a quick check of the primary oscillators: the 14-day Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and the 20-day fast stochastic. Both of these measures report on the degree to which a security is overbought or oversold ie, whether it has gone too far too fast in one direction or the other, and some kind of mean-reversion is called for. In each case, an indicator score of above 75 is considered overbought, while a score under 25 is considered oversold. In the case of Vodafone Group PLC ADR, the 14-day RSI stands at 62.15%, while the past month of action shows a score of 87.17% on the fast stochastic.

Well, what if we now look away from mean-reversion and towards the concept of trend That comprises our next step. To do this, we will start off by examining the most common systematic technical method of determining the direction of long-term trend in a stock: moving averages.

In the most basic sense, we can see that VOD has recently been exhibiting a bearing on the chart that suggests an overall bullish mode of behavior. This read comes from a look at the relative positioning of the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages: if the 50-day is trading above the 200-day, momentum is to the upside making a bull case for trend; if the 50-day is trading below the 200-day, momentum is to the downside, making a bear case for trend. In this example, that system makes a bullish case, which naturally implies a positive money flow scenario for the stock.

So, we’ve spent some time looking at price as a factor. But what about volume In fact, many technicians view volume as more important than price. Volume defines the total level of participation involved in a stock. Its a coefficient of meaning that should be metaphorically multiplied times price action to equal conviction. In this case, we want to examine relative volume measures to get a feel for interest in the stock of late. Right now, this stock has been showing strong relative volume, which indicates interest among those making a market for shares of the stock.

Next, we will turn to key levels. We always like to start this with a look at the key Fib levels. Fib refers to Fibonacci, which is the number series that works toward a ratio limit of the Golden Ratio, often found as a key in nature as well as markets. In this case, the critical 38.2% level drawn off the 52-week high of $31.03 sits at $28.46. VOD also has additional resistance above at the stocks 200-day simple moving average, which sits at $ 28.28.

While price action, trends, and volume are important, for traders, volatility may be as important as anything in defining the potential opportunity in a stock. Hence, we want to take a moment and consider this stocks overall range of movement, as well as its relative performance.

VOD has moved $+1.50 over the past month or so. Over the trailing 100 days, the stock is underperforming the S&P 500 by 2.16%. This movement has come on a less volatile bearing from one day to the next relative to the broader market, according to the stocks 36-month beta. Similarly, we can see that the stocks recent action has come on a historical volatility score of 24.51%. To get that score, one has to take the standard deviation of returns for a random trading input assuming buying the stock at a given average price during the specified period.

On a more basic level, one might look at the 20-day ATR as a percentage of its 20-day moving average. That measure gives us a volatility score of 1.16%. Naturally, we will continue to keep close tabs on the stock and update this picture again soon.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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Is BlockChain Mania 2.0 Ready to Roll Again? (GCAP, XALL, OSTK)

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For traders and investors involved in the markets and focused on cryptocurrency, the blockchain, and Bitcoin, the month of April has certainly been a welcome relief. The price of Bitcoin rallied during the month nearly 50%, carving out what may turn out to be a key double bottom confirmation of support. Naturally, enthusiasm for blockchain related projects has begun to recover powerfully during this period.

In that spirit, we want to take a look at several stocks that could be poised to benefit from this rejuvenated enthusiasm given recent action and catalysts.

 

GAIN Capital Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:GCAP) has to be on this list as an interesting play on this renewed momentum in the space.

The company provides innovative trading technology and execution services to retail and institutional investors worldwide, with multiple access points to OTC markets and global exchanges across a wide range of asset classes, including foreign exchange, commodities, and global equities. GAIN Capital is headquartered in Bedminster, New Jersey, with a global presence across North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific regions.

GCAP shares have been outperforming most blockchain related plays over the past 6 weeks. The stock continues to hold onto upward momentum in place since late March. Since its lows under $6.50 per share last month, we have seen a rally in the stock of over 30% on strong volume to retake all of its major moving averages on the bullish side and break out to new multi-month highs. At this point, traders are looking for signs that the stock will be able to hold onto its recent gains and breakout even higher.

 

Xalles Holdings Inc. (OTCMKTS:XALL) is another stock that needs to be watched closely here. If you’re looking for a potential emerging leadership play, then you want to look for companies that have recently made acquisitions to take them into direct operational integration within the blockchain phenomenon. In broad strokes, this is a company committed to the goal of becoming a dominant Fintech Accelerator by providing payment systems through its subsidiaries and partner companies.

 

The company recently executed a Share Purchase Agreement for the acquisition of BlockForge Inc., a blockchain design, development, and implementation firm. This is particularly important given the recent resurgence of enthusiasm for blockchain, cryptocurrency, and Bitcoin over the past 2-3 weeks. The company’s approach, according to its materials, is to roll up strategic acquisitions that are launching financial supply chain solutions to under-served markets. The focus will be on solutions for the business and Government markets. The goal is to capture recurring revenue streams through services, audit recovery fees, and revenue sharing licenses.

 

The stock has currently been establishing potential support around the $0.20-$0.25 per share level. This issue hasn’t been trading for long, but the initial action suggests a potential RSI-related bounce setup in play already, as initial liquidity establishes itself and the world becomes acquainted with this interesting story. We would also note that the company recently announced the restructuring of its common stock and the completion of additional debt reduction, which could force the issue in favor of the bulls before long. According to the release, Xalles recently took measures to reduce the number of outstanding shares of common stock by more than 69%.

 

Overstock.com Inc (NASDAQ:OSTK) is a stock you probably know as an online retailer based in Salt Lake City, Utah that sells a broad range of products at low prices, including furniture, décor, rugs, bedding, and home improvement. However, in addition to such goods, the company has started to move aggressively into the blockchain space over the past year, and its shares now trade far more on that business segment than on its retail business. It would appear as though shares of OSTK have been roughly mirroring the blockchain in Bitcoin trading action for the past month, with the stock pushing as much as 25% off its pivot lows in early April. After a stunning run higher last fall, where shares blasted from $15 to better than $80 per share, the stock has seen a sharp pullback in recent months culminating with a break under the $40 per share level, which also represented a break beneath the 200-day simple moving average.

However, recent action suggests a strong-handed bid entering the picture once again, which could indicate a possible test of major moving averages 10 – 20% above current levels.

 

 

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is a risky buy?

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It’s time to take an in-depth technical look at Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) . Our goal here today is to examine how the stock is behaving so we can use that examination as a lens through which to evaluate the stock as a possible investment opportunity.

Technical analysis is predicated on the idea that all important information is already interpolated by buyers and sellers of a security, so the only thing left to really interpret and predict the action is that behavior itself. For market timers, one of the most important tools we have at hand is the key indicators that show whether the stock is stretched in one direction or the other too much, too far, or too fast. In other words, is the stock overbought, oversold, or somewhere in the middle?

For that, we first turn to the RSI measure. The 14-day RSI is the standard flag-bearer for this type of analysis. Right now, for Amazon.com Inc., the measure stands at 54.77%. That shows where the stock is as far as the degree to which it is becoming overbought or oversold relative to its price history.

If we look at other overbought/oversold oscillators, we can get even more perspective. The stochastic measure is a good example. Right now, the stock over the past month of action shows a score of 58.08% on the 20-day fast stochastic.

In an even broader sense, NASDAQ: AMZN has recently been showing trading action that suggests an overall bearish posture on the chart according to trend-related measures such as a major moving average. In this case, we are looking at the relative positions of the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. The implication, of course, is that money is generally treating this stock in a negative manner in terms of capital flows.

Next, we want to look at participation levels. Our conviction on a stock in terms of its technicals is almost entirely subject in the end to the type of volume of trade we see going on in the stock. Patterns of action gain meaning strictly through volume levels. In other words, you need plenty of people playing the game for the score to matter. At this point, relative volume measures have been strong, indicating interest among traders, investors, and money managers for the stock over the past month. As it stands at present, the stock might find important action around key levels on the chart, which is something else we like to take a close look at.

One of the best ways to define key levels is through derivations built off of the Fibonacci series. This is widely used by professional firms in the market. The Fibonacci series is a set of numbers derived from adding the prior number to the next one: 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34, etc. You will note that each number is the sum of the prior two numbers. The series has been found to exemplify the mathematics underlying many growth systems. The ratio of one number to the next in the series approaches 61.8% (or 38.2%, depending on which direction you move) as a limit. In markets, the key levels are often played at retracements defined by this ratio and its associated connections. In this case, the critical 38.2% level drawn off the 52-week low of $912.11 sits at $1,181.58. NASDAQ: AMZN also has additional resistance above at the stocks 200-day simple moving average, which sits at $ 1,201.49.

So far, we have looked at oscillators, moving average trends, and participation levels. However, sometimes, there is information carried in simply the degree of movement in a stock. For example, over the past trading month, NASDAQ: AMZN has made a move of +86.28. By comparison, over the trailing 100 days, the stock is outperforming the S&P 500 by 28.48, and its gotten there by action that has been more volatile on a day-to-day basis than most other stocks on the exchange.

Obviously, that tells us a ton about this name. To even drill down deeper into the movement, we can see that the stocks recent action has come on a historical volatility score of 38.54%. That number is derived from the standard deviation of returns of some hypothetical trader buying the stock at a given average price during the specified period. If we want to look at the range of action in a simplistic sense, the best way is to use the average true range over the most common reference time period, so we are staying on the same page with the market. In this case, the 20-day ATR as a percentage of its 20-day moving average comes in at 4786%.

We plan to update our take on this stock as its pattern of behavior progresses from here.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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Could this be a game changer for Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) (ERIC)

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In the ever-evolving process of understanding what a stock is truly worth, we are going to look at Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) (ERIC) today from the standpoint of its EV/Rev ratio to see just what the company’s current market valuation implies about its worth as a take-out candidate. The EV/Rev ratio is also known as the Enterprise Value-to-Revenue ratio. It’s an alternative to price-to-sales that offers advantages by accounting for cash and debt.

In fact, one might suggest that the best way to achieve this is through taking a look at the company’s price-to-sales ratio (in this case, we are talking about 1.05). However, the problem with this measure, as noted above, is that it doesn’t consider the balance sheet as a tangible item.

For example, if you were to walk into company headquarters tomorrow and negotiate a deal to outright purchase Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) (ERIC), you would know you were going to own the company’s cash, and also take on its liabilities as your own. So, the balance sheet is part of the value of the company, and there’s no getting around it.

That’s why we might consider the company’s enterprise-value-to-revenue ratio as a superior means of valuing its current operational flows than price-to-sales. And in today’s innovation-driven market, operational flows seem to rule the day.

In this case, Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) (ERIC) is currently in possession of an enterprise value of 19.78B. That number is derived from the company’s market cap (which is currently at 25.104B) minus its cash and equivalents (which currently sit at roughly 5.07B) plus its outstanding debt (now at 3.96B). Occasionally, you will see this number include minority interest and preferreds. However, let’s keep it simple today.

That gives us one half of the equation. The other half is the trailing-year revenues. For Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) (ERIC), we are talking about 23.98B. We use the trailing revenues to avoid having to consider potential inflections in the environment or flaws in company or analyst outlooks. 

When we put them together, we get an EV/Rev ratio of 0.82.

It has been suggested that this method of valuing stocks struggles with unproven names such as penny stocks because they often have a checkered history in terms of operational success, and therefore, can end up with negative enterprise value. In other words, they have such small market caps that the balance sheet becomes the principal factor in the equation. And balance sheets can be highly variable from stock to stock in ways that may be misleading when trying to chase down the concept of “intrinsic value”.

Otherwise, investors may prefer other means of attempting to nail down the value of Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) (ERIC), including standard forward P/E (which comes in at 24.03), trailing P/E (which comes in at N/A), price-to-sales, as we noted above (coming in at 1.05, price-to-book (which currently sits at 2.13), and enterprise value-to-EBITDA (-27.08) — which represents the ratio of the EV to the company’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

In any case, however you choose to nail down the valuation of a company, you are probably first going to need to admit that there is no one perfect answer.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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Innovest Global Inc. (IVST): Rapidly Growing $4 Million Revenue Commercial & Industrial Division Released

 

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DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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