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Things investors didnt know about Momo Inc. ADR (NASDAQ: MOMO)

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Well-rounded due diligence on a stock should take into account a basic analysis of core company trends such as top-line and bottom-line performance, margins, analyst views, cash flows, and overall balance sheet health. But that’s not all. One must also take a dispassionate, professional survey of a stocks technical characteristics.

For that, we must turn to the chart. Today’s object of technical analysis is Momo Inc. ADR (MOMO).

We will start our analysis by examining overall direction of trend. In the most basic sense, we can see that MOMO has been working in a bullish posture on a larger timeframe, as indicated by the relative positioning of the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. In other words, if the 50-day moving average is trading above the 200-day, it is traditionally seen as a bullish chart trend. Conversely, if the 50-day moving average is trading below the 200-day, it is traditionally labeled a bearish trend or bearing. As noted, for MOMO, that adds up to a bullish designation the main point being that we have money flows leaning in a generally positive direction for the stock.

Next, we will turn to our analysis of the primary oscillating indicators to assess the degree to which the stock is stretched in its movement at present. The key tools for this analysis are the 14-day Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and the 20-day fast stochastic. In each case, the point is to measure overbought or oversold behavior ie, whether the stock has gone too far too fast in one direction or the other. If we see a score above 75 (overbought) or below 25 (oversold), history suggests one is wise to expect some reversion to the mean. For MOMO, we can see that our 14-day RSI shows a score of 31.36%, while the 20-day fast stochastic reports a score of 30.24%.

Next, we will turn to key levels of interest on the chart, with an emphasis on Fibonacci retrace points, range extremes, and major moving averages. In this case, the critical 38.2% level drawn off the 52-week high of $46.69 sits at $35.25. MOMO also has additional resistance above at the stocks 200-day simple moving average, which sits at $ 33.73.

We also want to look at relative performance and overall volatility scoring to understand value and risk in play. MOMO has moved $-2.21 over the past month or so. Over the trailing 100 days, the stock is underperforming the S&P 500 by 17.09%. This movement has come on a more volatile bearing from one day to the next relative to the broader market, according to the stocks 36-month beta.

Similarly, we can see that the stocks recent action has come on a historical volatility score of 42.88%. To get that score, one has to take the standard deviation of returns for a random trading input assuming buying the stock at a given average price during the specified period. On a more basic level, one might look at the 20-day ATR as a percentage of its 20-day moving average. That measure gives us a volatility score of 4.49%.

Finally, we’ve spent some time looking at price as a factor in many forms and from many angles. But what about volume? Notably, many chartists see volume as more indicative for conviction in bearing or pattern than price measures, averages, or oscillators. Volume records the true degree of participation involved in a stock. If price pattern is like a word written on a word processor, volume is like the font size and punctuation. In this case, we want to examine relative volume measures to get a feel for interest in the stock of late. Right now, this stock has been showing weak relative volume, which indicates lack of interest among those making a market for shares of the stock, and that should be seen as a key factor in drawing conclusions about your level of interest as well.

That wraps up todays analysis, but we will be sure to check back on this stock again soon.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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Ford Motor Company (F) finding value is an unloved sector

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Our task today will be to comprehensively evaluate recent data for Ford Motor Company (F) to determine whether or not we have something approaching a “value” in the market.

In the most basic sense, the “value investing” methodology really has its roots in the college textbook “Security Analysis”, which was published six decades ago by Graham and Dodd. But today, the term “value investing” is generally applied to any approach that focuses first and foremost on the concept of valuation, seeking out viable companies that are “cheap” based on various measures.

In this case, the company’s forward price-to-earnings ratio — perhaps the most common default measure of valuation — is currently at 7.92. That’s based on estimates looking for earnings of 0.48 coming up the pike in the company’s next financial report card.

That said, we all know that the forward data on a stock like this requires faith in those making projections: the analysts. Currently, the forward projections are driven by a group of 20 analysts. And, naturally, no one knows if those 20 folks are way off base for some reason. It’s happened before. That’s why some investing legends only trust the trailing earnings data.

In this case, that valuation ration is sitting right at 12.67.

However, to get a real sense of how this measures up, we will need to dig deeper. Benjamin Graham, the legendary value investor and one of the authors of the seminal text mentioned above, commonly relied on a simple formula for more aggressive investments: Current assets should be at least 1½ times current liabilities, debt should not be more than 110% of net current assets, there should be some level of dividend payments, and the Price-to-book-value ratio should be less than 120% of net tangible assets.

With that in mind, let’s see how Ford Motor Company (F) stacks up to this challenge.

First off, the company’s current ratio (the ration of current assets to current liabilities) is sitting at 1.20. Remember, according to Graham, that should be at least 1.5. Next, we can see debt-to-equity at 451.22. In addition, if you search the company’s recent dividend rate, you will get 0.60. How about price-to-book ratio? Right now, it clocks in at 1.48.

That should speak to what Graham might say if he came across this stock at its current price. But there are certainly other factors involved in the concept of value in today’s market that should be appreciated.

For example, Ford Motor Company (F) has managed to generate a return on its assets of 0.80%. That has been achieved through operating margins of 2.03%. Naturally, in the most basic sense, the concept of value is rooted in an ability to generate returns on invested capital. It is fundamentally about gaining access to the machine that has demonstrated its capability to generate those returns, and to do so for a price that is beneath what it is truly worth.

Perhaps the final measure that speaks to this idea is what investors currently have to pay for the company’s sales. In this case, the company’s price-to-sales ratio currently clocks in at 0.31.

 

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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Castle Brands Inc. (ROX) beta you simply cannot ignore

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Our task today will be to comprehensively evaluate recent data for Castle Brands Inc. (ROX) to determine whether or not we have something approaching a “value” in the market.

In the most basic sense, the “value investing” methodology really has its roots in the college textbook “Security Analysis”, which was published six decades ago by Graham and Dodd. But today, the term “value investing” is generally applied to any approach that focuses first and foremost on the concept of valuation, seeking out viable companies that are “cheap” based on various measures.

In this case, the company’s forward price-to-earnings ratio — perhaps the most common default measure of valuation — is currently at 61.00. That’s based on estimates looking for earnings of 0 coming up the pike in the company’s next financial report card.

That said, we all know that the forward data on a stock like this requires faith in those making projections: the analysts. Currently, the forward projections are driven by a group of 1 analysts. And, naturally, no one knows if those 1 folks are way off base for some reason. It’s happened before. That’s why some investing legends only trust the trailing earnings data.

In this case, that valuation ration is sitting right at -203.33.

However, to get a real sense of how this measures up, we will need to dig deeper. Benjamin Graham, the legendary value investor and one of the authors of the seminal text mentioned above, commonly relied on a simple formula for more aggressive investments: Current assets should be at least 1½ times current liabilities, debt should not be more than 110% of net current assets, there should be some level of dividend payments, and the Price-to-book-value ratio should be less than 120% of net tangible assets.

With that in mind, let’s see how Castle Brands Inc stacks up to this challenge.

First off, the company’s current ratio (the ration of current assets to current liabilities) is sitting at 3.06. Remember, according to Graham, that should be at least 1.5. Next, we can see debt-to-equity at 822.46. In addition, if you search the company’s recent dividend rate, you will get N/A. How about price-to-book ratio? Right now, it clocks in at 110.91.

That should speak to what Graham might say if he came across this stock at its current price. But there are certainly other factors involved in the concept of value in today’s market that should be appreciated.

For example, Castle Brands Inc. (ROX) has managed to generate a return on its assets of 2.48%. That has been achieved through operating margins of 2.87%. Naturally, in the most basic sense, the concept of value is rooted in an ability to generate returns on invested capital. It is fundamentally about gaining access to the machine that has demonstrated its capability to generate those returns, and to do so for a price that is beneath what it is truly worth.

Perhaps the final measure that speaks to this idea is what investors currently have to pay for the company’s sales. In this case, the company’s price-to-sales ratio currently clocks in at 2.72.

 

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) beta you simply cannot ignore

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Our task today will be to comprehensively evaluate recent data for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) to determine whether or not we have something approaching a “value” in the market.

In the most basic sense, the “value investing” methodology really has its roots in the college textbook “Security Analysis”, which was published six decades ago by Graham and Dodd. But today, the term “value investing” is generally applied to any approach that focuses first and foremost on the concept of valuation, seeking out viable companies that are “cheap” based on various measures.

In this case, the company’s forward price-to-earnings ratio — perhaps the most common default measure of valuation — is currently at -171.95. That’s based on estimates looking for earnings of -1.7 coming up the pike in the company’s next financial report card.

That said, we all know that the forward data on a stock like this requires faith in those making projections: the analysts. Currently, the forward projections are driven by a group of 19 analysts. And, naturally, no one knows if those 19 folks are way off base for some reason. It’s happened before. That’s why some investing legends only trust the trailing earnings data.

In this case, that valuation ration is sitting right at -69.46.

However, to get a real sense of how this measures up, we will need to dig deeper. Benjamin Graham, the legendary value investor and one of the authors of the seminal text mentioned above, commonly relied on a simple formula for more aggressive investments: Current assets should be at least 1½ times current liabilities, debt should not be more than 110% of net current assets, there should be some level of dividend payments, and the Price-to-book-value ratio should be less than 120% of net tangible assets.

With that in mind, let’s see how Tesla, Inc stacks up to this challenge.

First off, the company’s current ratio (the ration of current assets to current liabilities) is sitting at 0.97. Remember, according to Graham, that should be at least 1.5. Next, we can see debt-to-equity at 145.20. In addition, if you search the company’s recent dividend rate, you will get N/A. How about price-to-book ratio? Right now, it clocks in at 11.01.

That should speak to what Graham might say if he came across this stock at its current price. But there are certainly other factors involved in the concept of value in today’s market that should be appreciated.

For example, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has managed to generate a return on its assets of -2.10%. That has been achieved through operating margins of -6.33%. Naturally, in the most basic sense, the concept of value is rooted in an ability to generate returns on invested capital. It is fundamentally about gaining access to the machine that has demonstrated its capability to generate those returns, and to do so for a price that is beneath what it is truly worth.

Perhaps the final measure that speaks to this idea is what investors currently have to pay for the company’s sales. In this case, the company’s price-to-sales ratio currently clocks in at 5.59.

 

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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