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The reason why traders are flocking on Western Digital Corp. (NASDAQ: WDC)

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Today’s object of technical analysis is Western Digital Corporation (WDC). After one does a thorough job of checking for chinks in the armor on the fundamental side, the work of due diligence is only just beginning. The next step is to make sure the technical character of the chart matches the story in an advantageous way. We will look at some of the key points in that analysis today for WDC.

First off, when looking at the overall directional impact of recent money flows, we will use the relative positioning of the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. In other words, if the 50-day moving average is trading above the 200-day, it is traditionally seen as a bullish chart trend. Conversely, if the 50-day moving average is trading below the 200-day, it is traditionally labeled a bearish trend or bearing.

In this case, for WDC, that adds up to a bullish designation, which suggests that flows have been working in an overall positive direction on the chart. With that established, the question now turns to whether or not key indicators suggest the action has pushed too far too fast, leading to a statistically likely mean-reversion probability going forward.

For that, we rely on our key overbought/oversold oscillators. There are many out there, but we prefer the 14-day Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and the 20-day “fast stochastic”. For both of these measures, if we see a score above 75 (overbought) or below 25 (oversold), history suggests one is wise to expect some reversion to the mean. For WDC, the 14-day RSI shows a score of 47.10%, while the 20-day fast stochastic shows a score of 31.67%.

From there, we want to next turn our attention to relative performance and volatility scoring, or Beta. Western Digital Corporation has moved -2.97 over the past month or so. Over the trailing 100 days, the stock is underperforming the S&P 500 by 5.4.

This movement has come on a more volatile bearing from one day to the next relative to the broader market, according to the stock’s 36-month beta. In addition, we can see that the stock’s recent action has come on a historical volatility score of 27.80% (as indicated by taking the standard deviation of returns for a random trading input assuming buying the stock at a given average price during the specified period). Furthermore, the 20-day ATR as a percentage of the 20-day moving average grants another key view into relative volatility scoring. By that measure, we reach a score of 3.02%.

That brings us neatly to an examination of key levels of support and resistance on the chart. For this, we generally bias toward range markets, fib levels, and moving averages. In any of these cases, it’s important to understand that the concept of support and resistance is a bit like what we might call “social gravity”. It’s a game theory concept. It’s the point where people assume other people will be acting.

Keynes called this type of logic the beauty contest. The idea is based on a fictional newspaper contest in which people are asked to pick which of a series of pictures of women’s faces will be the most popular picks for “most beautiful”. Given that the winner will be someone who guesses what other people picked the most, the goal has nothing to do with picking the most beautiful face. It is figuring out which picture the most other people will think the most other people will think is the most beautiful. This is called “recursive logic”. And it forms the basis for key support and resistance in markets as well.

In short, popular meeting points on the chart tend to be established either where they have been before (range extremes), or at key Fibonacci levels or moving averages. In this case, the critical 38.2% level drawn off the 52-week high of $95.77 sits at $79.09. WDC also has additional resistance above at the stock’s 200-day simple moving average, which sits at $ 82.55.

Lastly, we need to quickly cover relative volume. Here, we want to examine relative volume measures to get a feel for interest in the stock of late. Right now, this stock has been showing weak relative volume, which indicates lack of interest among those making a market for shares of the stock, and that should be seen as a key factor in drawing conclusions about your level of interest as well.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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Ford Motor Company (F) finding value is an unloved sector

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Our task today will be to comprehensively evaluate recent data for Ford Motor Company (F) to determine whether or not we have something approaching a “value” in the market.

In the most basic sense, the “value investing” methodology really has its roots in the college textbook “Security Analysis”, which was published six decades ago by Graham and Dodd. But today, the term “value investing” is generally applied to any approach that focuses first and foremost on the concept of valuation, seeking out viable companies that are “cheap” based on various measures.

In this case, the company’s forward price-to-earnings ratio — perhaps the most common default measure of valuation — is currently at 7.92. That’s based on estimates looking for earnings of 0.48 coming up the pike in the company’s next financial report card.

That said, we all know that the forward data on a stock like this requires faith in those making projections: the analysts. Currently, the forward projections are driven by a group of 20 analysts. And, naturally, no one knows if those 20 folks are way off base for some reason. It’s happened before. That’s why some investing legends only trust the trailing earnings data.

In this case, that valuation ration is sitting right at 12.67.

However, to get a real sense of how this measures up, we will need to dig deeper. Benjamin Graham, the legendary value investor and one of the authors of the seminal text mentioned above, commonly relied on a simple formula for more aggressive investments: Current assets should be at least 1½ times current liabilities, debt should not be more than 110% of net current assets, there should be some level of dividend payments, and the Price-to-book-value ratio should be less than 120% of net tangible assets.

With that in mind, let’s see how Ford Motor Company (F) stacks up to this challenge.

First off, the company’s current ratio (the ration of current assets to current liabilities) is sitting at 1.20. Remember, according to Graham, that should be at least 1.5. Next, we can see debt-to-equity at 451.22. In addition, if you search the company’s recent dividend rate, you will get 0.60. How about price-to-book ratio? Right now, it clocks in at 1.48.

That should speak to what Graham might say if he came across this stock at its current price. But there are certainly other factors involved in the concept of value in today’s market that should be appreciated.

For example, Ford Motor Company (F) has managed to generate a return on its assets of 0.80%. That has been achieved through operating margins of 2.03%. Naturally, in the most basic sense, the concept of value is rooted in an ability to generate returns on invested capital. It is fundamentally about gaining access to the machine that has demonstrated its capability to generate those returns, and to do so for a price that is beneath what it is truly worth.

Perhaps the final measure that speaks to this idea is what investors currently have to pay for the company’s sales. In this case, the company’s price-to-sales ratio currently clocks in at 0.31.

 

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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Castle Brands Inc. (ROX) beta you simply cannot ignore

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Our task today will be to comprehensively evaluate recent data for Castle Brands Inc. (ROX) to determine whether or not we have something approaching a “value” in the market.

In the most basic sense, the “value investing” methodology really has its roots in the college textbook “Security Analysis”, which was published six decades ago by Graham and Dodd. But today, the term “value investing” is generally applied to any approach that focuses first and foremost on the concept of valuation, seeking out viable companies that are “cheap” based on various measures.

In this case, the company’s forward price-to-earnings ratio — perhaps the most common default measure of valuation — is currently at 61.00. That’s based on estimates looking for earnings of 0 coming up the pike in the company’s next financial report card.

That said, we all know that the forward data on a stock like this requires faith in those making projections: the analysts. Currently, the forward projections are driven by a group of 1 analysts. And, naturally, no one knows if those 1 folks are way off base for some reason. It’s happened before. That’s why some investing legends only trust the trailing earnings data.

In this case, that valuation ration is sitting right at -203.33.

However, to get a real sense of how this measures up, we will need to dig deeper. Benjamin Graham, the legendary value investor and one of the authors of the seminal text mentioned above, commonly relied on a simple formula for more aggressive investments: Current assets should be at least 1½ times current liabilities, debt should not be more than 110% of net current assets, there should be some level of dividend payments, and the Price-to-book-value ratio should be less than 120% of net tangible assets.

With that in mind, let’s see how Castle Brands Inc stacks up to this challenge.

First off, the company’s current ratio (the ration of current assets to current liabilities) is sitting at 3.06. Remember, according to Graham, that should be at least 1.5. Next, we can see debt-to-equity at 822.46. In addition, if you search the company’s recent dividend rate, you will get N/A. How about price-to-book ratio? Right now, it clocks in at 110.91.

That should speak to what Graham might say if he came across this stock at its current price. But there are certainly other factors involved in the concept of value in today’s market that should be appreciated.

For example, Castle Brands Inc. (ROX) has managed to generate a return on its assets of 2.48%. That has been achieved through operating margins of 2.87%. Naturally, in the most basic sense, the concept of value is rooted in an ability to generate returns on invested capital. It is fundamentally about gaining access to the machine that has demonstrated its capability to generate those returns, and to do so for a price that is beneath what it is truly worth.

Perhaps the final measure that speaks to this idea is what investors currently have to pay for the company’s sales. In this case, the company’s price-to-sales ratio currently clocks in at 2.72.

 

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) beta you simply cannot ignore

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Our task today will be to comprehensively evaluate recent data for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) to determine whether or not we have something approaching a “value” in the market.

In the most basic sense, the “value investing” methodology really has its roots in the college textbook “Security Analysis”, which was published six decades ago by Graham and Dodd. But today, the term “value investing” is generally applied to any approach that focuses first and foremost on the concept of valuation, seeking out viable companies that are “cheap” based on various measures.

In this case, the company’s forward price-to-earnings ratio — perhaps the most common default measure of valuation — is currently at -171.95. That’s based on estimates looking for earnings of -1.7 coming up the pike in the company’s next financial report card.

That said, we all know that the forward data on a stock like this requires faith in those making projections: the analysts. Currently, the forward projections are driven by a group of 19 analysts. And, naturally, no one knows if those 19 folks are way off base for some reason. It’s happened before. That’s why some investing legends only trust the trailing earnings data.

In this case, that valuation ration is sitting right at -69.46.

However, to get a real sense of how this measures up, we will need to dig deeper. Benjamin Graham, the legendary value investor and one of the authors of the seminal text mentioned above, commonly relied on a simple formula for more aggressive investments: Current assets should be at least 1½ times current liabilities, debt should not be more than 110% of net current assets, there should be some level of dividend payments, and the Price-to-book-value ratio should be less than 120% of net tangible assets.

With that in mind, let’s see how Tesla, Inc stacks up to this challenge.

First off, the company’s current ratio (the ration of current assets to current liabilities) is sitting at 0.97. Remember, according to Graham, that should be at least 1.5. Next, we can see debt-to-equity at 145.20. In addition, if you search the company’s recent dividend rate, you will get N/A. How about price-to-book ratio? Right now, it clocks in at 11.01.

That should speak to what Graham might say if he came across this stock at its current price. But there are certainly other factors involved in the concept of value in today’s market that should be appreciated.

For example, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has managed to generate a return on its assets of -2.10%. That has been achieved through operating margins of -6.33%. Naturally, in the most basic sense, the concept of value is rooted in an ability to generate returns on invested capital. It is fundamentally about gaining access to the machine that has demonstrated its capability to generate those returns, and to do so for a price that is beneath what it is truly worth.

Perhaps the final measure that speaks to this idea is what investors currently have to pay for the company’s sales. In this case, the company’s price-to-sales ratio currently clocks in at 5.59.

 

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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