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Tenet Healthcare Corp. (NYSE: THC) may go parabolic based on technicals

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It’s time to take an in-depth technical look at Tenet Healthcare Corp. (NYSE: THC) . Our goal here today is to examine how the stock is behaving so we can use that examination as a lens through which to evaluate the stock as a possible investment opportunity.

Technical analysis is predicated on the idea that all important information is already interpolated by buyers and sellers of a security, so the only thing left to really interpret and predict the action is that behavior itself. For market timers, one of the most important tools we have at hand is the key indicators that show whether the stock is stretched in one direction or the other too much, too far, or too fast. In other words, is the stock overbought, oversold, or somewhere in the middle?

For that, we first turn to the RSI measure. The 14-day RSI is the standard flag-bearer for this type of analysis. Right now, for Tenet Healthcare Corp., the measure stands at 45.00%. That shows where the stock is as far as the degree to which it is becoming overbought or oversold relative to its price history.

If we look at other overbought/oversold oscillators, we can get even more perspective. The stochastic measure is a good example. Right now, the stock over the past month of action shows a score of 28.04% on the 20-day fast stochastic.

In an even broader sense, NYSE: THC has recently been showing trading action that suggests an overall bearish posture on the chart according to trend-related measures such as a major moving average. In this case, we are looking at the relative positions of the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. The implication, of course, is that money is generally treating this stock in a negative manner in terms of capital flows.

Next, we want to look at participation levels. Our conviction on a stock in terms of its technicals is almost entirely subject in the end to the type of volume of trade we see going on in the stock. Patterns of action gain meaning strictly through volume levels. In other words, you need plenty of people playing the game for the score to matter. At this point, relative volume measures have been weak, indicating lack of interest among traders, investors, and money managers for the stock over the past month. As it stands at present, the stock might find important action around key levels on the chart, which is something else we like to take a close look at.

One of the best ways to define key levels is through derivations built off of the Fibonacci series. This is widely used by professional firms in the market. The Fibonacci series is a set of numbers derived from adding the prior number to the next one: 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34, etc. You will note that each number is the sum of the prior two numbers. The series has been found to exemplify the mathematics underlying many growth systems. The ratio of one number to the next in the series approaches 61.8% (or 38.2%, depending on which direction you move) as a limit. In markets, the key levels are often played at retracements defined by this ratio and its associated connections. In this case, the critical 38.2% level drawn off the 52-week low of $12.54 sits at $16.97. NYSE: THC also has additional resistance above at the stocks 200-day simple moving average, which sits at $ 17.51.

So far, we have looked at oscillators, moving average trends, and participation levels. However, sometimes, there is information carried in simply the degree of movement in a stock. For example, over the past trading month, NYSE: THC has made a move of -1.29. By comparison, over the trailing 100 days, the stock is underperforming the S&P 500 by 19.8, and its gotten there by action that has been more volatile on a day-to-day basis than most other stocks on the exchange.

Obviously, that tells us a ton about this name. To even drill down deeper into the movement, we can see that the stocks recent action has come on a historical volatility score of 51.47%. That number is derived from the standard deviation of returns of some hypothetical trader buying the stock at a given average price during the specified period. If we want to look at range of action in a simplistic sense, the best way is to use the average true range over the most common reference time period, so we are staying on the same page with the market. In this case, the 20-day ATR as a percentage of its 20-day moving average comes in at 4.69%.

We plan to update our take on this stock as its pattern of behavior progresses from here.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum are crashing and here’s why

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All hell is breaking loose on cryptocurrency this week. Bitcoin is currently trading at $10,805 as we write this article. Earlier on Monday, Bitcoin was trading at $14K+ and looks like investors have already lost over ~40% in a span of 2 days.

Let’s blame is on China for now. China, as we all know, is the major generator (miner) of bitcoin that requires a high magnitude of the energy-intensive process of solving complex math problems to add transactions to the Blockchain. For the novices, Bitcoin mining is estimated to use up to 4 gigawatts of electricity, equivalent to three nuclear reactors’ production levels. This is the prime reason why China’s government is planning to shut down Bitcoin miners in its latest crackdown on the cryptocurrency. It’s important to note that the crackdown is not limited to China. Government agencies in India, South Korea and across the globe have cautioned investors to stay away from the high volatility in daily bitcoin trading.

Ethereum dropped more than 30 percent since yesterday while Ripple, the third-largest digital currency by market capitalization, briefly fell 40 percent.

 

 

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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Should you spew Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC)?

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We are going to take a deep look at Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) to get a better view of the company and its prevailing status, as well as the prospect it may offer for investors. Today’s prime focus will be a fundamental assessment of the equity from top to bottom.

As such, let’s begin with the top line, i.e. revenue trends. Last quarter, the firm saw its overall revenue come at $16.15B. That represents a change in revenues, on a quarterly/yearly basis, of 0.02%. If it is translated into sequential terms, the firm witnessed sales grow by 0.09% from quarter to quarter.

It’s important to track the top line data. There’s no better way to compute the end market’s reception of a firms products. But no one wins without bottom line performance, which is what is required to look at next. Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) is intriguing when segregated to its core data. The cost of selling goods in preceding quarter was $6.13B, resulting in a gross basic income of $10.02B. For shareholders, provided the total diluted due shares of 4.82B, this means earnings per share of $0.94. Note, this assesses with a consensus analyst projection of $0.72 in EPS for its next quarterly report.

Given that data, now is the time to turn to a thorough glance across analyst projections for the firm going forward. At present, analysts have a consensus average recommendation of Overweight. This is grounded on a total of 38 analysts. While we don’t recommend taking analyst calls as face value strategies for action in a portfolio, we do consider it is vital to note where consensus is on an equity to understand what basic assumptions are possibly already discounted into the pricing of shares. As far as price targets, market analysts have an average target of $46.64. In addition, for next year, estimates of a fiscal year forecast is 3.25 in total EPS. On a median price to earnings ratio, that outlook results in a valuation of $12.84 times earnings.

For Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC), the firm presently holds around $9.08B in cash. That cash is balanced against around $4.14B in total current liabilities. The firm’s debt is $growing, while total assets are $127.09B balanced by total liablities of $55.28B. The free cash flow last quarter was $3.29B, representing a net change in cash of $(2.61B). On a net operating level, the cash flow was about $6.26B.

Let’s take a look at the technical analysis. The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 8% Sell with a Weakest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction. Longer term, the trend strength is Minimum. The market is approaching oversold territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

We will apprise the interesting story of Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) as new events transpire.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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What will happen to Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) next?

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Today, we are going to evaluate Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) so as to get clarity on this organization and its current standing from a fundamental perspective. In that process, we hope to give some insight into what this stock may offer as an investment opportunity for prospective investors. To accomplish that, we will be moving from top to bottom in our evaluation. As such, our first point of focus will be a look at the company from a revenue perspective.

Over the course of the prior fiscal quarter, the company saw sales of 12.14B[3. Sales mrq]. That number needs context to grant us any insight: by comparison, we can see an overall change in revenues, on a quarterly year/year basis, of -0.02%. However, in sequential terms, the situation looks a little different, with sales grow by 0% from quarter to quarter. While revenue analysis gives us a strong sense of changing demand trends in the company?s end market, and how the company is executing in terms of its relationship with potential customers, real shareholder value is only truly created by profitability. With this in mind, we turn to the company?s bottom line data.

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) may offer even more interest as an object of analysis if we zoom in a bit more and look at some of its core trends. For example, the cost of selling goods last quarter was 4.63B, which yielded a gross basic income of 7.51B.

The company?s recently reported data shows total diluted outstanding shares of 4.99B, which implies an overall EPS (or earnings per share) of 0.48. To give the reader a little context that number compares to an analyst consensus expected value of 0.62 in next fiscal quarter EPS data. Next, let?s look ahead at coming performance based on what analysts are projecting for the company more generally, before closing with a survey of the balance sheet and cash flow. Among analysts, the average recommendation for this stock is Overweight. That number represents the product of the work of 28 analysts. It is important to consider the views of the analyst community even though we don?t suggest taking analyst recommendations as face value plans for action in a portfolio. The primary value of looking at analyst opinions is in knowing what sort of views may already be priced into the stock.

If we look at price targets, we can see that analysts currently have things pegged around an average target at about 39.76. When we look at next year, we can things shake out in terms of estimates of a fiscal year forecast to bring about 2.60 in terms of total EPS. That works out to a median P/E ratio basis valuation of right around 15.41 times earnings.

So far, we have covered how the company is doing on both the top and bottom line, as well as what professional analysts believe about its core trends and operational and financial performance going forward. However, we would be remiss if we did not also take a quick look at cash flows and the company?s balance sheet to round out our perspective on the name.

The last thing we like to look at for a company like is the balance sheet. That really is the heart of the company?s ability to weather tough times, and the basis for an experienced investor?s sense of the real downside risk inherent in a stock. So, as we like to see, the balance sheet is the seat of faith for the market. In this case, for CSCO, the company has about 11.04B in cash in the bank, according to its most recent reports. That cash sits opposite about 10.24B in total current liabilities on the ledger. But balance sheet health isn?t a fixed idea. Trends matter. And the best way to understand real risk, particularly where debt levels are concerned, is to trace a line connecting the past with the future. In this case, the company?s debt has been growing. The company also has 130.52B in total assets, balanced by 64.97B in total liabilities. That should put things into perspective quite a bit more in terms of how one can justify the current market cap of the stock.

Finally, we want to take a peek at cash flows. In this case, the company saw free cash flowing at 2.91B last quarter, which represents a net change for the quarter in cash levels of (665M). That works out to about 3.08B in terms of cash flow on a net operating basis.

This is certainly an interesting story and one we plan to check back on soon.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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