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MannKind Corp. (NASDAQ: MNKD) pounding technical traders

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It’s time to take an in-depth technical look at MannKind Corp. (NASDAQ: MNKD) . Our goal here today is to examine how the stock is behaving so we can use that examination as a lens through which to evaluate the stock as a possible investment opportunity.

Technical analysis is predicated on the idea that all important information is already interpolated by buyers and sellers of a security, so the only thing left to really interpret and predict the action is that behavior itself. For market timers, one of the most important tools we have at hand is the key indicators that show whether the stock is stretched in one direction or the other too much, too far, or too fast. In other words, is the stock overbought, oversold, or somewhere in the middle?

For that, we first turn to the RSI measure. The 14-day RSI is the standard flag-bearer for this type of analysis. Right now, for MannKind Corp., the measure stands at 70.49%. That shows where the stock is as far as the degree to which it is becoming overbought or oversold relative to its price history.

If we look at other overbought/oversold oscillators, we can get even more perspective. The stochastic measure is a good example. Right now, the stock over the past month of action shows a score of 70.22% on the 20-day fast stochastic.

In an even broader sense, NASDAQ: MNKD has recently been showing trading action that suggests an overall bullish posture on the chart according to trend-related measures such as a major moving average. In this case, we are looking at the relative positions of the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. The implication, of course, is that money is generally treating this stock in a positive manner in terms of capital flows.

Next, we want to look at participation levels. Our conviction on a stock in terms of its technicals is almost entirely subject in the end to the type of volume of trade we see going on in the stock. Patterns of action gain meaning strictly through volume levels. In other words, you need plenty of people playing the game for the score to matter. At this point, relative volume measures have been strong, indicating interest among traders, investors, and money managers for the stock over the past month. As it stands at present, the stock might find important action around key levels on the chart, which is something else we like to take a close look at.

One of the best ways to define key levels is through derivations built off of the Fibonacci series. This is widely used by professional firms in the market. The Fibonacci series is a set of numbers derived from adding the prior number to the next one: 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34, etc. You will note that each number is the sum of the prior two numbers. The series has been found to exemplify the mathematics underlying many growth systems. The ratio of one number to the next in the series approaches 61.8% (or 38.2%, depending on which direction you move) as a limit. In markets, the key levels are often played at retracements defined by this ratio and its associated connections. In this case, the critical 38.2% level drawn off the 52-week high of $6.96 sits at $4.56. NASDAQ: MNKD also has additional resistance above at the stocks 200-day simple moving average, which sits at $ 1.98.

So far, we have looked at oscillators, moving average trends, and participation levels. However, sometimes, there is information carried in simply the degree of movement in a stock. For example, over the past trading month, NASDAQ: MNKD has made a move of +3.04. By comparison, over the trailing 100 days, the stock is outperforming the S&P 500 by 303.76, and its gotten there by action that has been more volatile on a day-to-day basis than most other stocks on the exchange.

Obviously, that tells us a ton about this name. To even drill down deeper into the movement, we can see that the stocks recent action has come on a historical volatility score of 199.83%. That number is derived from the standard deviation of returns of some hypothetical trader buying the stock at a given average price during the specified period. If we want to look at range of action in a simplistic sense, the best way is to use the average true range over the most common reference time period, so we are staying on the same page with the market. In this case, the 20-day ATR as a percentage of its 20-day moving average comes in at 16.96%.

We plan to update our take on this stock as its pattern of behavior progresses from here.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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Ford Motor Company (F) finding value is an unloved sector

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Our task today will be to comprehensively evaluate recent data for Ford Motor Company (F) to determine whether or not we have something approaching a “value” in the market.

In the most basic sense, the “value investing” methodology really has its roots in the college textbook “Security Analysis”, which was published six decades ago by Graham and Dodd. But today, the term “value investing” is generally applied to any approach that focuses first and foremost on the concept of valuation, seeking out viable companies that are “cheap” based on various measures.

In this case, the company’s forward price-to-earnings ratio — perhaps the most common default measure of valuation — is currently at 7.92. That’s based on estimates looking for earnings of 0.48 coming up the pike in the company’s next financial report card.

That said, we all know that the forward data on a stock like this requires faith in those making projections: the analysts. Currently, the forward projections are driven by a group of 20 analysts. And, naturally, no one knows if those 20 folks are way off base for some reason. It’s happened before. That’s why some investing legends only trust the trailing earnings data.

In this case, that valuation ration is sitting right at 12.67.

However, to get a real sense of how this measures up, we will need to dig deeper. Benjamin Graham, the legendary value investor and one of the authors of the seminal text mentioned above, commonly relied on a simple formula for more aggressive investments: Current assets should be at least 1½ times current liabilities, debt should not be more than 110% of net current assets, there should be some level of dividend payments, and the Price-to-book-value ratio should be less than 120% of net tangible assets.

With that in mind, let’s see how Ford Motor Company (F) stacks up to this challenge.

First off, the company’s current ratio (the ration of current assets to current liabilities) is sitting at 1.20. Remember, according to Graham, that should be at least 1.5. Next, we can see debt-to-equity at 451.22. In addition, if you search the company’s recent dividend rate, you will get 0.60. How about price-to-book ratio? Right now, it clocks in at 1.48.

That should speak to what Graham might say if he came across this stock at its current price. But there are certainly other factors involved in the concept of value in today’s market that should be appreciated.

For example, Ford Motor Company (F) has managed to generate a return on its assets of 0.80%. That has been achieved through operating margins of 2.03%. Naturally, in the most basic sense, the concept of value is rooted in an ability to generate returns on invested capital. It is fundamentally about gaining access to the machine that has demonstrated its capability to generate those returns, and to do so for a price that is beneath what it is truly worth.

Perhaps the final measure that speaks to this idea is what investors currently have to pay for the company’s sales. In this case, the company’s price-to-sales ratio currently clocks in at 0.31.

 

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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Castle Brands Inc. (ROX) beta you simply cannot ignore

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Our task today will be to comprehensively evaluate recent data for Castle Brands Inc. (ROX) to determine whether or not we have something approaching a “value” in the market.

In the most basic sense, the “value investing” methodology really has its roots in the college textbook “Security Analysis”, which was published six decades ago by Graham and Dodd. But today, the term “value investing” is generally applied to any approach that focuses first and foremost on the concept of valuation, seeking out viable companies that are “cheap” based on various measures.

In this case, the company’s forward price-to-earnings ratio — perhaps the most common default measure of valuation — is currently at 61.00. That’s based on estimates looking for earnings of 0 coming up the pike in the company’s next financial report card.

That said, we all know that the forward data on a stock like this requires faith in those making projections: the analysts. Currently, the forward projections are driven by a group of 1 analysts. And, naturally, no one knows if those 1 folks are way off base for some reason. It’s happened before. That’s why some investing legends only trust the trailing earnings data.

In this case, that valuation ration is sitting right at -203.33.

However, to get a real sense of how this measures up, we will need to dig deeper. Benjamin Graham, the legendary value investor and one of the authors of the seminal text mentioned above, commonly relied on a simple formula for more aggressive investments: Current assets should be at least 1½ times current liabilities, debt should not be more than 110% of net current assets, there should be some level of dividend payments, and the Price-to-book-value ratio should be less than 120% of net tangible assets.

With that in mind, let’s see how Castle Brands Inc stacks up to this challenge.

First off, the company’s current ratio (the ration of current assets to current liabilities) is sitting at 3.06. Remember, according to Graham, that should be at least 1.5. Next, we can see debt-to-equity at 822.46. In addition, if you search the company’s recent dividend rate, you will get N/A. How about price-to-book ratio? Right now, it clocks in at 110.91.

That should speak to what Graham might say if he came across this stock at its current price. But there are certainly other factors involved in the concept of value in today’s market that should be appreciated.

For example, Castle Brands Inc. (ROX) has managed to generate a return on its assets of 2.48%. That has been achieved through operating margins of 2.87%. Naturally, in the most basic sense, the concept of value is rooted in an ability to generate returns on invested capital. It is fundamentally about gaining access to the machine that has demonstrated its capability to generate those returns, and to do so for a price that is beneath what it is truly worth.

Perhaps the final measure that speaks to this idea is what investors currently have to pay for the company’s sales. In this case, the company’s price-to-sales ratio currently clocks in at 2.72.

 

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) beta you simply cannot ignore

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Our task today will be to comprehensively evaluate recent data for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) to determine whether or not we have something approaching a “value” in the market.

In the most basic sense, the “value investing” methodology really has its roots in the college textbook “Security Analysis”, which was published six decades ago by Graham and Dodd. But today, the term “value investing” is generally applied to any approach that focuses first and foremost on the concept of valuation, seeking out viable companies that are “cheap” based on various measures.

In this case, the company’s forward price-to-earnings ratio — perhaps the most common default measure of valuation — is currently at -171.95. That’s based on estimates looking for earnings of -1.7 coming up the pike in the company’s next financial report card.

That said, we all know that the forward data on a stock like this requires faith in those making projections: the analysts. Currently, the forward projections are driven by a group of 19 analysts. And, naturally, no one knows if those 19 folks are way off base for some reason. It’s happened before. That’s why some investing legends only trust the trailing earnings data.

In this case, that valuation ration is sitting right at -69.46.

However, to get a real sense of how this measures up, we will need to dig deeper. Benjamin Graham, the legendary value investor and one of the authors of the seminal text mentioned above, commonly relied on a simple formula for more aggressive investments: Current assets should be at least 1½ times current liabilities, debt should not be more than 110% of net current assets, there should be some level of dividend payments, and the Price-to-book-value ratio should be less than 120% of net tangible assets.

With that in mind, let’s see how Tesla, Inc stacks up to this challenge.

First off, the company’s current ratio (the ration of current assets to current liabilities) is sitting at 0.97. Remember, according to Graham, that should be at least 1.5. Next, we can see debt-to-equity at 145.20. In addition, if you search the company’s recent dividend rate, you will get N/A. How about price-to-book ratio? Right now, it clocks in at 11.01.

That should speak to what Graham might say if he came across this stock at its current price. But there are certainly other factors involved in the concept of value in today’s market that should be appreciated.

For example, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has managed to generate a return on its assets of -2.10%. That has been achieved through operating margins of -6.33%. Naturally, in the most basic sense, the concept of value is rooted in an ability to generate returns on invested capital. It is fundamentally about gaining access to the machine that has demonstrated its capability to generate those returns, and to do so for a price that is beneath what it is truly worth.

Perhaps the final measure that speaks to this idea is what investors currently have to pay for the company’s sales. In this case, the company’s price-to-sales ratio currently clocks in at 5.59.

 

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

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