Connect with us

Business

Checking the overall technical picture of Dynavax Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: DVAX)

Published

on

We turn our attention to the charts today. Technical analysis. It’s the artistic side of the analysis. Here, we deal with lines and angles and patterns. Here, we try to listen to the market; to hear its opinion of a stock, quite independent of the seeming facts of the business. Here, we look to paint a picture, as it were. Today’s subject in this exercise is Dynavax Technologies Corporation (DVAX).

Let’s start with a quick evaluation of relative volume measures. Here, we want to examine the degree to which traders, investors, and money managers are more or less interested over the past month in transacting in this security. At this point, this stock has been showing weak relative volume, which indicates lack of interest among those participating in the market for shares of DVAX over the past month. That sets us up to look at relative performance of the stock along with range and volatility measures. This boils down to the concept of what is known as “beta”.

First off, we can readily state the facts on relative performance. DVAX has moved +4.48 over the past month or so. Over the trailing 100 days, the stock is outperforming the S&P 500 by 318.1. As to the point of beta, we can see the stock has been generally moving more than the rest of the market on a day to day basis. That is according to the 36-month beta score. Another way to look at this is through taking the standard deviation of returns calculated as representing a hypothetical buyer of the stock at a random point at a given average price during the specified period. That gives us a historical volatility score of 44.17%. Finally, in this class of data, we can look at the 20-day ATR as a percentage of the 20-day moving average, which gives us a natural volatility score of 4.7%.

Now, it’s time to look at trend and extent of movement. From a certain point of view, these are the natural opposites in technical analysis. On the one hand, we know experienced traders and technical manuals teach us that “the trend is your friend.” However, at the same time, we know it’s wise to fade extreme, overdone movement. That posits a natural tension for analysts, and unfortunately, the best we can do is to look at the facts.

In the first place, the broad impact of money flows should be viewed through the tried-and-tested lens of moving average analysis. In this case, we look at the relative positioning of the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. In other words, if the 50-day moving average is trading above the 200-day, it is traditionally seen as a bullish chart trend. Conversely, if the 50-day moving average is trading below the 200-day, it is traditionally labeled a bearish trend or bearing. For DVAX, that adds up to a bullish designation, which suggests that flows have been working in an overall positive direction on the chart.

To counter that notion, we now turn to a look at mean reversion oscillators. Our key indicators of note attempt to score the action as to whether or not a security has pushed too far too fast, leading to a likelihood of some kind of reversion to the mean movement becoming highly probable.

There is a host of oscillating indicators that can offer up such an analytic perspective. We have learned to rely most on RSI and stochastics. Specifically, we look at the 14-day Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and the 20-day “fast stochastic”. For both of these measures, if we see a score above 75 (overbought) or below 25 (oversold), history suggests one is wise to expect some reversion to the mean. For DVAX, the 14-day RSI shows a score of 77.77%, while the 20-day fast stochastic shows a score of 93.49%.

We close today’s analysis with a quick check of key levels. For our means, we like to quickly check the key Fibonacci retracement zone as well as the primary institutional long-term moving average (the 200-day simple average). In the case of is Dynavax Technologies Corporation (DVAX), the critical 38.2% level drawn off the 52-week high of $23.67 sits at $15.85. DVAX also has additional resistance above at the stock’s 200-day simple moving average, which sits at $ 9.00.

Hopefully, this analysis has offered up some useful perspective. We will catch up with this stock again soon.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Business

Why Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) could blow up your portfolio

Published

on

Stock of Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) opened today at $39.60 and are currently trading at $41.55 x 300. More than 136 shares have exchanged hands compared to an average daily volume of 365,484 shares. At the current pps, the market capitalization stands at 1.35B. Analyst are currently predicting a target of $43.71 for Hub Group, Inc.

Investors try to use stocks with high beta values to quickly recoup their investments after sharp market losses. Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) currently has a Beta value of 1.96. Beta is a measurement of a stock’s price fluctuations, which is often called volatility and is used by investors to gauge how quickly a stock’s price will rise or fall. A stock with a beta of greater than 1.0 is riskier and has greater price fluctuations, while stocks with beta values of less than 1.0 are steadier and generally larger companies. Beta is often measured against the S&P; 500 index. An S&P; 500 stock with a beta of 2.0 produced a 20 percent increase in returns during a period of time when the S&P; 500 Index grew only 10 percent. This same measurement also means the stock would lose 20 percent when the market dropped by only 10 percent.

Next, let’s take a look at Hub Group, Inc current P/E ratio. Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) currently has a PE ratio of 23.59. PE ratio is an important parameter to look at when trading a stock mostly because it is easy to calculate. There are a couple of ways to calculate PE ratio either by dividing share price by earnings per share or dividing the market cap by net income. It is important to note that the earnings are usually taken from the trailing twelve months (TTM). Nevertheless, P/E tells us how much an investor is willing to pay for $1 of a company’s earnings. The long-term average P/E is around 15, so on average, investors are willing to pay $15 for every dollar of earnings. Another useful way to look at this: Turn the P/E ratio around to look at the E/P ratio, which when expressed as a percentage gives us the earnings yield. For instance: 1/15 gives us an earnings yield of 6.67%.

While we have already looked at Hub Group, Inc beta and P/E ratio, the EPS cannot be ignored. Hub Group, Inc EPS for the trailing twelve months was 1.68. Traders and investors often use earnings per share (TTM) to determine a company’s profitability for the past year. So in essence, EPS is the amount of a company’s net income per share of common stock. Earnings per share equal the company’s net income less any dividends paid on preferred stock divided by the weighted average number of common stock shares outstanding during the year. Hub Group, Inc is estimated to release its next earnings report on Oct 26, 2017. It would be interesting to see how the earnings fair out considering the recent developments.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

Continue Reading

Business

Tribune Media Company (TRCO) finding value is an unloved sector

Published

on

Stock of Tribune Media Company (TRCO) opened today at $40.550 and are currently trading at $43.490 x 300. More than 950,907 shares have exchanged hands compared to an average daily volume of 1,089,460 shares. At the current pps, the market capitalization stands at 3.54B. Analyst are currently predicting a target of $42.75 for Tribune Media Company (TRCO).

Investors try to use stocks with high beta values to quickly recoup their investments after sharp market losses. Tribune Media Company (TRCO) currently has a Beta value of 1.82. Beta is a measurement of a stock’s price fluctuations, which is often called volatility and is used by investors to gauge how quickly a stock’s price will rise or fall. A stock with a beta of greater than 1.0 is riskier and has greater price fluctuations, while stocks with beta values of less than 1.0 are steadier and generally larger companies. Beta is often measured against the S&P; 500 index. An S&P; 500 stock with a beta of 2.0 produced a 20 percent increase in returns during a period of time when the S&P; 500 Index grew only 10 percent. This same measurement also means the stock would lose 20 percent when the market dropped by only 10 percent.

Next, let’s take a look at Tribune Media Company (TRCO) current P/E ratio. Tribune Media Company (TRCO) currently has a PE ratio of 73.10. PE ratio is an important parameter to look at when trading a stock mostly because it is easy to calculate. There are a couple of ways to calculate PE ratio either by dividing share price by earnings per share or dividing the market cap by net income. It is important to note that the earnings are usually taken from the trailing twelve months (TTM). Nevertheless, P/E tells us how much an investor is willing to pay for $1 of a company’s earnings. The long-term average P/E is around 15, so on average, investors are willing to pay $15 for every dollar of earnings. Another useful way to look at this: Turn the P/E ratio around to look at the E/P ratio, which when expressed as a percentage gives us the earnings yield. For instance: 1/15 gives us an earnings yield of 6.67%.

While we have already looked at Tribune Media Company (TRCO) beta and P/E ratio, the EPS cannot be ignored. Tribune Media Company (TRCO) EPS for the trailing twelve months was 0.56. Traders and investors often use earnings per share (TTM) to determine a company’s profitability for the past year. So in essence, EPS is the amount of a company’s net income per share of common stock. Earnings per share equal the company’s net income less any dividends paid on preferred stock divided by the weighted average number of common stock shares outstanding during the year. Tribune Media Company (TRCO) is estimated to release its next earnings report on Nov 7, 2017 – Nov 13, 2017. It would be interesting to see how the earnings fair out considering the recent developments.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

Continue Reading

Business

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) – ‘A Blessing In Disguise’ For Investors

Published

on

Stock of General Mills, Inc. (GIS) opened today at $52.11 and are currently trading at $52.88 x 200. More than 137,196 shares have exchanged hands compared to an average daily volume of 4,106,933 shares. At the current pps, the market capitalization stands at 29.59B. Analyst are currently predicting a target of $54.22 for General Mills, Inc.

Investors try to use stocks with high beta values to quickly recoup their investments after sharp market losses. General Mills, Inc. (GIS) currently has a Beta value of 0.43. Beta is a measurement of a stock’s price fluctuations, which is often called volatility and is used by investors to gauge how quickly a stock’s price will rise or fall. A stock with a beta of greater than 1.0 is riskier and has greater price fluctuations, while stocks with beta values of less than 1.0 are steadier and generally larger companies. Beta is often measured against the S&P; 500 index. An S&P; 500 stock with a beta of 2.0 produced a 20 percent increase in returns during a period of time when the S&P; 500 Index grew only 10 percent. This same measurement also means the stock would lose 20 percent when the market dropped by only 10 percent.

Next, let’s take a look at General Mills, Inc current P/E ratio. General Mills, Inc. (GIS) currently has a PE ratio of 18.80. PE ratio is an important parameter to look at when trading a stock mostly because it is easy to calculate. There are a couple of ways to calculate PE ratio either by dividing share price by earnings per share or dividing the market cap by net income. It is important to note that the earnings are usually taken from the trailing twelve months (TTM). Nevertheless, P/E tells us how much an investor is willing to pay for $1 of a company’s earnings. The long-term average P/E is around 15, so on average, investors are willing to pay $15 for every dollar of earnings. Another useful way to look at this: Turn the P/E ratio around to look at the E/P ratio, which when expressed as a percentage gives us the earnings yield. For instance: 1/15 gives us an earnings yield of 6.67%.

While we have already looked at General Mills, Inc beta and P/E ratio, the EPS cannot be ignored. General Mills, Inc EPS for the trailing twelve months was 2.77. Traders and investors often use earnings per share (TTM) to determine a company’s profitability for the past year. So in essence, EPS is the amount of a company’s net income per share of common stock. Earnings per share equal the company’s net income less any dividends paid on preferred stock divided by the weighted average number of common stock shares outstanding during the year. General Mills, Inc is estimated to release its next earnings report on Dec 18, 2017 – Dec 22, 2017. It would be interesting to see how the earnings fair out considering the recent developments.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

Continue Reading

Trending